Publications > Proceedings of the Energy Symposium Arithmetic, Population, and Energy
	I.   Reflections on the Twentieth Anniversary      of the "Fundamentals" Paper II.  Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis III. Additional and Updated Information

Additional and Updated Information

Understanding the Concept (and Effect of) Constant Growth	THE GREATEST SHORTCOMING OF THE HUMAN RACE IS OUR INABILITY TO UNDERSTAND THE EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION!
If it takes a fixed length of time to grow five percent, then it follows that it takes a longer fixed length of time to grow by one hundred percent. This longer time is called THE DOUBLING TIME.
	We can calculate the doubling time. T2 = 70 (PERCENT GROWTH PER UNIT TIME) Thus a growth rate of 5% per year has a doubling time of T2 = 70 / 5 = 14 years Where did the 70 come from? 70 ~ 100 ln 2 = 69.3
THE GROWTH IN ANY DOUBLING TIME IS GREATER THAN THE TOTAL OF ALL THE PRECEDING GROWTH!
	So, if growth in energy demand is 7% per year, the doubling time is ten years.   If that rate of growth is maintained, we will need AS MUCH ENERGY in the next ten years as has been used from the beginning of the history of energy use UNTIL NOW.

Oil Reserves in the United States

From the Wall Street Journal, July 18, 1996: "U.S. Oil Output Tumbled in First Half As Alaska's Production Fell Nearly 8% By Anne Reifenberg Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal U.S. crude oil output fell sharply in the first half of the year, with production from Alaska's enormous fields taking an unexpected, nearly 8% tumble, the American Petroleum Institute reported. One consequence was another jump in the amount of imported petroleum used by Americans to 52% from 49% of total consumption. The nation's production of oil has been tracking downward for more than a decade. But industry analysts were surprised by the rate of decline recorded in the first six months of 1996: 3.1%, more than double the 1.5% rate in the same period of 1995. And the number of oil-well confirmations, a barometer of the explorations and production sector’s health, also slipped abruptly -- by 18% -- even though crude was selling for about $2 a barrel more this spring than last. "With prices like that, it's not as if people wouldn't have been trying to get oil out of the ground," said Ken Haley, chief economist for Chevron Corp. in San Francisco. "The question we can’t answer yet is whether this is a new trend or a quirk." The petroleum institute, which keeps statistics for the industry, had thought the exploration-and-production boom in the Gulf of Mexico would compensate for sluggish activity in the continental U.S. "But what’s going on in the Gulf isn’t enough to completely offset the decline onshore in the lower 48," said Ed Murphy, the institute's chief economist, "and certainly not enough to make up for Alaska production falling off so very, very quickly." Alaska's prolific North Slope fields, among the biggest in the world, were discovered nearly 30 years ago. The Slope's output peaked in 1988, at about two million barrels a day. "The only thing that companies can do in Alaska is try to slow the rate of decline," said Peter Jacquette, an energy analyst with WEFA Group in Eddystone, Pa. "

World Oil Supply

Here is an example of the policy of "STRENGTH THROUGH EXHAUSTION." William Simon, Energy Advisor to U.S. President Gerald Ford: "We should be trying to get as many holes drilled as possible to get the proven (oil) reserve." CBS Television August 31, 1977	Commenting on a scientific analysis that was done by petroleum geologists, M.A. Adelman, Emeritus Professor of Economics at M.I.T., said: "This analysis is a piece of foolishness." "The world will never run out of oil, not in 10,000 years." Fortune November 22, 1999, Pg. 194
We have non-scientists telling us that petroleum reserves are greater than ever before in history, and we have geologists telling us that we are finding only one new barrel of oil for every four barrels we pump from the ground. WHAT'S GOING ON?	YOU CANNOT LET OTHERS DO YOUR THINKING FOR YOU!

From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: "Four Decades Later, Oil Field Off Canada Is Ready to Produce Politics, Money, and Nature Put Vast Deposit on Ice; Now, It Will Last 50 Years 'Shot in the Arm for U.S.' … The Hibernia field, one of the largest oil discoveries in North America in decades, should deliver its first oil by year end. At least 20 more fields may follow, offering well over one billion barrels of high-quality crude and promising that a steady flow of oil will be just a quick tanker-run away from the energy-thirsty East Coast." April 1, 1997 USE LONG DIVISION: U.S. CONSUMPTION (1994) 18X106 BARRELS/DAY 1 x 109 BARRELS = 56 DAYS not "50 years" 18 x 106 B/D

Dr. Julian Simon Formerly Professor of Economics and Business Administration, University of Illinois And in 1992, Professor of Business Administration, University of Maryland, and Adjunct Scholar of the Heritage Foundation: Writing about oil from many sources (including biomass), Simon says, "Clearly there is no meaningful limit to this source except the sun's energy…" "but even if our sun were not as vast as it is, there may well be other suns elsewhere." The Ultimate Resource Princeton University Press, 1981, Page 49.

Coal Reserves in the United States

DATA FOR U.S. COAL "Annual Energy Review: 1991," U.S. Department of Energy, pgs. 109, 189 Coal Demonstrated Reserve Base: R = 4.7 x 1011 tons* *"about one-half of the demonstrated reserve base of coal in the United States is estimated to be recoverable." R = 2.4 x 1011 tons Extraction Rates 1971 r0 = 5.6 X 108 tons/yr 1991 r0 = 9.9 X 108 tons/yr Average Rate of Growth 2.86% per year	LIFE EXPECTANCY OF U.S. COAL
	Growth Rate	Recoverable	Reserve Base
	8% per year	37 Years	46 Years
	7	41	50
	6	45	56
	5	51	64
	4	59	75
	3	70	91
	2.86*	72	94
	2	87	117
	1	121	174
	0	236	473
	* Avg. growth rate 1971-1991
	Data from "Annual Energy Review: 1991," U.S. Department of Energy, pgs. 109, 189
"We spent about $25 billion for imported oil last year," Beall* said, adding that any reduction in the dependence on imported oil could be greatly aided by increased use of coal. He estimated that America's coal reserves are so huge they could last "a minimum of 300 years and probably a maximum of 1000 years." *Director of the Energy Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratories Boulder Daily Camera July 5, 1975 COMPARE THIS TO THE "LIFE EXPECTANCY OF U.S. COAL," ABOVE.	"By the lowest estimate, we have enough (coal) for 200 years, by the highest, enough for more than a thousand years."   CBS reporter Wagner CBS Television Special Program on Energy August 31, 1977     HOW DOES THIS STATEMENT HOLD UP WHEN COMPARED TO THE FACTS?

NEWSWEEK MAGAZINE In a cover story on energy (July 16, 1979) said that "at present rates of consumption" we have enough coal for "666.5 years." DOES THAT MEAN THERE IS ENOUGH COAL FOR OVER 600 YEARS?

Don't believe any prediction of the life expectancy of a non-renewable resource until you have confirmed the prediction by repeating the calculation. COROLLARY The more optimistic the prediction the greater is the probability that it is based on faulty arithmetic or on no arithmetic at all.

Final Notes

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