Moderate Economic Growth Predicted in Current State Forecast
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For Immediate Release: February 23, 2007
DBEDT Release News 07-02
HONOLULU--In its latest quarterly economic report, the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) forecasts that Hawai'i's economy will show moderate growth in 2007.
Personal income, total wage and salary jobs, and gross domestic product (GDP), formerly called gross state product (GSP), are all forecast to increase.
"Continued job growth, improvement in visitor arrivals, strong growth in non-residential construction, and the ongoing federal military housing initiative should maintain the growth of the overall economy in the near-term despite a decline in residential construction." said DBEDT Director Theodore E. Liu.
After a flat 2006, DBEDT expects visitor arrivals to increase 1.4 percent in 2007.
DBEDT estimates real personal income growth to be 0.5 percent in 2006, 1.6 percentage points lower than in the previous forecast. This was mainly because of much higher actual rate of inflation of 5.9 percent in 2006, 1.1 percentage points more than expected earlier. Real personal income is expected to increase 1.9 percent in 2007 and 2.1 percent in 2008.
Honolulu's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to increase 4.0 percent in 2007, 0.4 of a percentage point higher than in the previous forecast. In 2008, Honolulu's CPI is expected to rise 3.4 percent.
Total wage and salary job growth is expected to be 1.8 percent in 2007 and 1.5 percent in 2008.
Hawai'i real GDP is predicted to increase 2.7 percent in 2006 and 2.6 percent in 2007.
The DBEDT Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report contains more than 100 tables of the most recent quarterly data on Hawai'i's economy as well as narrative explanations of the trends in these data. The full report is available at http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/economic/data_reports/qser.
2005 to 2010
| Economic Indicators | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Actual) | (Forecast) | |||||
| Total population (thousands) | 1,273 | 1,285 | 1,299 | 1,313 | 1,326 | 1,340 |
| Visitor arrivals (thousands) | 7,494 | 7,492 | 7,594 | 7,744 | 7,899 | 8,071 |
| Visitor days (thousands) | 68,242 | 68,054 | 69,089 | 70,461 | 71,887 | 73,465 |
| Visitor expenditures (million dollars) | 11,904 | 12,261 | 12,845 | 13,515 | 14,195 | 14,936 |
| Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) | 197.8 | 209.4 | 217.8 | 225.2 | 232.4 | 239.4 |
| Personal income (million dollars) | 43,953 | 46,766 ¹ | 49,572 | 52,348 | 55,070 | 57,824 |
| Real personal income (millions of 2000$) | 39,176 | 39,374 ¹ | 40,131 | 40,985 | 41,779 | 42,590 |
| Total wage & salary jobs (thousands) | 608.9 | 624.7 | 635.9 | 645.4 | 653.8 | 661.7 |
| Gross domestic product (million dollars) ² | 54,019 | 57,368 ¹ | 60,523 | 63,671 | 66,854 | 70,197 |
| Real gross domestic product (millions of 2000$) ² | 46,466 ³ | 47,724 ¹ | 48,978 | 50,219 | 51,444 | 52,699 |
| Gross domestic product deflator (2000=100) ² | 116.3 ³ | 120.2 ¹ | 123.6 | 126.8 | 130.0 | 133.2 |
| Annual Percentage Change | ||||||
| Total population | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Visitor arrivals | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Visitor days | 7.7 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Visitor expenditures | 9.6 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Honolulu CPI-U | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Personal income | 6.7 | 6.4 ¹ | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Real personal income | 2.9 | 0.5 ¹ | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Total wage & salary jobs | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Gross domestic product ² | 7.5 | 6.2 ¹ | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Real gross domestic product ² | 4.0 ³ | 2.7 ¹ | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Gross domestic product deflator ² | 3.4 ³ | 3.4 ¹ | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
2/ Formerly called 'Gross state product'. See U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/GSPNewsRelease.htm.
3/ DBEDT-adjusted U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate.
Source: Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, February 21, 2007.
For more information, contact:
Dave Young
Communications
Phone: (808) 587-1212
Email: dyoung@dbedt.hawaii.gov