For Immediate Release: November 16, 2007
DBEDT Release News 07-31

HONOLULU--In its latest quarterly economic report, the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) continues to expect moderate growth in Hawai‘i's economy for the rest of this year and into 2008.

"Strong employment growth in professional and business services, construction, and health services is countering slower visitor activity so far in 2007," said DBEDT Director Theodore E. Liu. "Right now, our analysis is that this should help maintain economic growth into 2008."

Personal income, total wage and salary jobs, and state gross domestic product (GDP) are all forecast to grow over the next several years. Declines in international arrivals in the first half and some reduction in domestic arrivals in the latest quarter will result in a decline in total visitor arrivals for 2007. Visitor arrivals are expected to increase in 2008.

DBEDT expects total visitor arrivals in 2007 to decline 0.8 percent from 2006, as compared to a 0.3 percent decline in the previous DBEDT forecast. Visitor arrivals by air for the first three quarters were down 1.0 percent from 2006. Strong growth in cruise visitors will partly temper the decline in air visitors. The forecast of visitor arrival growth in 2008 is now expected to be 1.0 percent, down 0.5 of a percentage point from the previous forecast.

The 2007 forecast for real personal income (corrected for inflation) growth remains unchanged from the August forecast at 1.8 percent. In 2008, real personal income is projected to grow 1.8 percent, down 0.1 of a percentage point from the previous forecast.

The forecast for Honolulu's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also unchanged at 4.5 percent for 2007 and 3.8 percent for 2008. The CPI moderated from a 5.9 percent increase for all of 2006, to a 5.0 percent increase in the first half of 2007 and is expected to moderate further in the second half of the year.

In response to some moderation in job growth and lower growth in civilian employment in the latest quarter compared to the first two quarters, the 2007 forecast of wage and salary job growth has been revised down slightly to 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent in the previous forecast. The job growth forecast for 2008 remains unchanged at 1.5 percent.

The 2007 forecast for Hawai‘i's real GDP growth is also left unchanged at 2.9 percent. In 2008, real GDP is projected to grow 2.8 percent, down 0.1 percent from August.

The DBEDT Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report contains more than 100 tables of the most recent quarterly data on Hawai‘i's economy as well as narrative explanations of the trends in these data. The full report is available at http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/economic/data_reports/qser.

For more information, contact:
Dave Young
Communications
Phone: (808) 587-1212
Email: dyoung@dbedt.hawaii.gov