For Immediate Release: January 31, 2008
DBEDT Release News 08-04

HONOLULU - Hawai‘i's total resident population is projected to slowly reach nearly 1.69 million people by 2035, according to the newly updated long-range economic and population projections released by the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

While this amounts to a 33 percent increase in population from 2005, it is a slower rate of growth than experienced over the previous 30 years.

The report, Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawai‘i to 2035, is available on the department's website at http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt. Prepared by the department's Research and Economic Analysis Division, the report also contains economic and population projections for Hawai‘i's four counties.

"These updated projections provide important information that will be used in economic development and infrastructure planning at the state and county levels," said DBEDT Director Theodore E. Liu. "It is important to note that the projections are neither targets nor goals for the state. Rather they are our best estimates of likely trends in population and the economy based on currently available information."

Due to technological advances and increased productivity, Hawai‘i's real gross domestic product (GDP) and personal income are expected to grow faster than population and employment, according to the report. State GDP is expected to grow by nearly 75 percent between 2005 and 2035, at an average yearly rate of 1.9 percent.

Real personal income is projected to increase 71 percent over the projected period or increase at an average of 1.8 percent per year.

The projections take into account the changing patterns of the age-sex structure of the population, showing the aging of the resident population over the projected period.

Appendix tables accompanying the report indicate that the share of people age 65 and over in total population will increase from 13.8 percent in 2005 to 22.0 percent in 2035. The percent of school-age (5 to 17 years) children is expected to slip from 16.6 percent to 15.5 percent of the population. With an ageing population, the share of active working-age people (18 to 64 years) in total population is projected to decline from 62.8 percent in 2005 to 56.2 percent in 2035 as the baby boom generation moves into retirement.

"These projections clearly show that appropriate workforce development efforts will be the key to meeting the demand for workers to support the future growth of our economy," Liu said.

Among the counties, Hawai‘i County is projected to experience the highest population growth over the projected period. The resident population in Hawai‘i County is expected to increase 69.4 percent by 2035, to a total of 279,200 residents, compared with 164,800 residents in 2005.

Maui County's population growth is behind Hawai‘i County's with its resident population increasing 49.2 percent by 2035 from 2005. That will take the county's population from 139,100 in 2005 to 207,600 residents in 2035.

Kaua‘i County's resident population is projected to grow 38 percent to 85,100 in 2035, compared to 61,700 in 2005

The City and County of Honolulu is expected to experience the slowest growth, with its total resident population being projected to grow 23.4 percent over the projected period, from 902,000 in 2005 to 1,113,300 in 2035. However, because of its shear size, Honolulu's population increase will still account for nearly 51 percent of the statewide increase in the resident population between 2005 and 2035.

The report is available on the DBEDT's website at http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt. For more information, contact the DBEDT Research and Economic Analysis Division at 586-2466.

Summary of Updated State Economic and Population Projections, 2005-2035

For more information, contact:
Dave Young
Communications
Phone: (808) 587-1212
Email: dyoung@dbedt.hawaii.gov