State Economists Still Optimistic Predict Moderate Economic Growth
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For Immediate Release: February 26, 2008
DBEDT Release News 08-05
HONOLULU--In its latest quarterly economic report, the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) expects moderate growth in Hawaii's economy for this year and the next.
"We still expect continued job growth in professional and business services, construction, food service, and health services that should counter weakened visitor activity," said DBEDT Director Theodore E. Liu. "As a result, we continue to forecast moderate economic growth during the next few years."
Personal income, total wage and salary jobs, and state gross domestic product (GDP) are all forecast to show moderate growth over the next several years; however, rates of growth have decreased from the previous forecast. Continued sluggishness in air travel coupled with the departure of two domestic cruise ships from Hawaii's market will likely cause some decline in total visitor arrivals for 2008.
Total visitor arrivals are now expected to decline 1.4 percent in 2008, as compared to 1.0 percent growth in the previous forecast. DBEDT projects 1.2 percent growth in total visitor arrivals in 2009, followed by another 1.4 percent growth in 2010.
Real personal income (corrected for inflation) is now estimated to increase 1.3 percent in 2007, down 0.5 of a percentage point from the November forecast. In 2008, real personal income is projected to grow 1.6 percent, down 0.2 of a percentage point from the previous forecast. These downward revisions in real income growth account for the higher inflation rate.
In 2007, the Honolulu Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 4.8 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the DBEDT's forecast. Honolulu's CPI, a proxy for inflation, is expected to rise 4.0 percent in 2008, 0.2 of a percentage point higher than in the previous forecast. The CPI growth for 2009 remains unchanged at 3.4 percent.
In response to considerable moderation in both job and employment growth in the latest quarter, the 2008 forecast of wage and salary job growth has been lowered to 1.4 percent from1.5 percent in the previous forecast. The job growth forecast for 2009 remains unchanged at 1.3 percent.
The Hawaii's real GDP is now estimated to have increased 2.7 percent in 2007, down 0.2 of a percentage point from the previous estimate. Real GDP is projected to grow 2.5 percent in both 2008 and 2009, down 0.3 and 0.2 of a percentage point, respectively, from the November forecast.
The DBEDT Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report contains more than 100 tables of the most recent quarterly data on Hawaii's economy as well as narrative explanations of the trends in these data. The full report is available at http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/economic/data_reports/qser.
2005 TO 2010
| Economic Indicators | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Actual) | (Forecast) | |||||
| Total population (thousands) ¹ | 1,268 | 1,279 | 1,291 | 1,304 | 1,317 | 1,333 |
| Visitor arrivals (thousands) ² | 7,494 | 7,561 | 7,498 | 7,391 | 7,479 | 7,585 |
| Visitor days (thousands) ² | 68,242 | 69,216 | 68,146 | 67,149 | 67,958 | 68,929 |
| Visitor expenditures (million dollars) ² | 11,904 | 12,381 | 12,488 | 12,675 | 13,211 | 13,795 |
| Honolulu CPI-U (1982-84=100) | 197.8 | 209.4 | 219.5 | 228.3 | 236.0 | 243.6 |
| Personal income (million dollars) | 44,333 | 47,340 | 50,293 ³ | 53,150 | 56,020 | 58,933 |
| Real personal income (millions of 2000$) 4 | 39,514 | 39,866 | 40,395 | 41,048 | 41,842 | 42,652 |
| Total wage & salary jobs (thousands) | 608.6 | 623.5 | 635.3 | 644.2 | 652.5 | 660.4 |
| Gross domestic product (million dollars) | 54,773 | 58,307 5 | 61,689 ³ | 65,020 | 68,401 | 71,821 |
| Real gross domestic product (millions of 2000$) | 46,918 | 48,303 6 | 49,616 ³ | 50,871 | 52,160 | 53,432 |
| Gross domestic product deflator (2000=100) | 116.7 | 120.7 ³ | 124.3 ³ | 127.8 | 131.1 | 134.4 |
| Annual Percentage Change | ||||||
| Total population ¹ | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Visitor arrivals ² | 7.2 | 0.9 | -0.8 | -1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Visitor days ² | 7.7 | 1.4 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Visitor expenditures ² | 9.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| Honolulu CPI-U | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Personal income | 7.9 | 6.8 | 6.2 ³ | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Real personal income 4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Total wage & salary jobs | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Gross domestic product | 7.9 | 6.5 5 | 5.8 ³ | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Real gross domestic product | 4.3 | 3.0 6 | 2.7 ³ | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Gross domestic product deflator | 3.4 | 3.4 ³ | 3.0 ³ | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
2/ Visitors who came to Hawaii by air or by cruise ship.
3/ DBEDT estimate.
4/ DBEDT calculated using BEA estimate of nominal personal income deflated by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Honolulu CPI-U (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm).
5/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm) advance estimate.
6/ DBEDT-adjusted BEA advance estimate.
Source: Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, February 21, 2008.
For more information, contact:
Dave Young
Communications
Phone: (808) 587-1212
Email: dyoung@dbedt.hawaii.gov