For Immediate Release: May 20, 2009
DBEDT News Release 09-13

HONOLULU—In its latest quarterly economic report, the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) says it expects the national recession to continue to affect Hawai‘i's economy throughout 2009.

Based largely on downward revisions in national economic forecasts, the Department now expects a 1.6 percent decline in the state's 2009 real gross state domestic product as well as a 2.1 percent decline in the average job count for the year.

While the forecast for visitor arrivals was unchanged from the previous forecast, visitor expenditures will likely be negatively impacted. In the current forecast, DBEDT expects visitor expenditures will decrease 7.9 percent in 2009.

"National and international economic conditions continue to negatively affect Hawai‘i's economy and this will likely be the case for most of 2009," said DBEDT Director Theodore E. Liu. "We are hopeful the situation will improve late this year, but recovery is likely to be a gradual process. We expect that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 will also have a positive impact beginning in the latter half of the year and will allow the State to make investments in some transformational changes, especially in the area of energy."

Recent forecasts for the U.S. economy show sharper declines in 2009 than previously projected. Forecasts of key international economies have also been lowered.

DBEDT expects total visitor arrivals to decline 5.9 percent in 2009, same as the previous (February 2009) forecast; however, visitor expenditures are expected to decrease 7.9 percent, a significantly larger decline than the 1.9 percent decline projected in the previous forecast; and total visitor days is now projected to decrease 3.4 percent in 2009, compared to the 4.4 percent decline projected in the previous forecast.

In light of 2009 first quarter declines in jobs and the lower forecast for visitor expenditures and visitor days, the state now expects total wage and salary jobs to decline 2.1 percent in 2009. This is down from a 1.3 percent decline projected in the previous forecast.

The Honolulu Consumer Price Index (CPI), a proxy for inflation, is expected to rise just 1.2 percent in 2009, about half the rate expected in the previous forecast.

The expectation for personal income growth in current dollars has been lowered to 0.1 percent for 2009. After adjusting for inflation, real personal income is now projected to decrease 1.1 percent in 2009.

The state's gross domestic product (GDP) in current dollars is forecast to increase 0.1 percent for 2009. However, in real terms, GDP is expected to decrease 1.6 percent in 2009, compared with the 0.2 percent decrease projected in the previous forecast.

The state's economy is expected to stabilize in 2010 with a modest, 1.2 percent growth in visitor arrivals and flat real personal income (0.0 percent growth) and real GDP (0.4 percent growth). The net job count is also likely to remain flat in 2010. Inflation will remain low with the Honolulu CPI increasing just 1.5 percent.

Assuming continued improvement in national and international economic conditions, modest growth in the state's economy is forecast to return by 2011. The visitor arrival count is forecast to increase by 4.3 percent in 2011, with visitor expenditures up 7.4 percent. Real personal income and real GDP are expected to increase 1.0 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, in 2011. The state's job count will likely see a modest 0.5 percent increase for 2011. That gradual pace of recovery should continue in 2012, barring unforeseen events.

The DBEDT Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report contains more than 100 tables of the most recent quarterly data on Hawai‘i's economy as well as narrative explanations of the trends in these data. The full report is available at: hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/economic/data_reports/qser.

For more information, contact:
Dave Young, DBEDT Communications
Phone: (808) 587-1212
Email: dyoung@dbedt.hawaii.gov