Drought Forecast
Droughts have affected the islands throughout Hawaii’s recorded history. Drought forecasting is necessary to help prepare the state for potentially devastating drought events and forecasting tools have improved over the past few years. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center and National Integrated Drought Information System have developed drought forecasting tools and long-lead rainfall outlooks. The El Nino phenomenon has a strong correlation to Hawaiian rainfall, where below-normal rainfall occurs frequently in the winter and spring rainfall following an El Nino. Below are some of these forecasting tools.
Seasonal Drought Outlook and Assessment
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook is developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, National Weather Service to report nationwide drought tendancy for a specific season. Click on the map for the latest seasonal assessment summary.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
TopTemperature and Precipitation
The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA maintains and periodically updates a long-range precipitation forecast for Hawaii. The forecast is represented by a series of graphs that indication periods of rainfall anomalies. Click on the graph for a larger view.
Click to view the Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Related Information Sources
- Three month outlooks
- North American Drought Debriefing
- Drought Information Statements
- Drought Monitoring
- North American Drought Monitoring
- National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
- National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
El Niño
El Niño events are closely linked to drought conditions in Hawaii. The most severe drought events of the past 15 years are associated with the El Niño phenomenon. The Tropical Atmospheric Ocean (TAO) Project provides real-time data from moored ocean buoys for the detection of El Niño and El Niña events. Click on the image below to view current ocean conditions.
Source: Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project
