The Corrections Population Management Commission (CPMC) is charged with establishing maximum inmate population limits for each correctional facility and recommending cost-effective mechanisms, legislation, and policies to prevent those limits from being exceeded. Commission members represent the criminal justice system (law enforcement, prosecution, defense, courts, corrections, and parole) and policy makers from the legislature. Administratively attached to the Department of Public Safety, the CPMC is required to provide fiscal impact statements along with its policy recommendations (section 353F-3, Hawaii Revised Statutes). In order to aid the CPMC in its mission of delineating appropriate planning strategies, the Sentencing Simulation Model Project (SSMP) was created. Under the guidance of the Commission, the overall goal of the SSMP is to provide the Commission with a statewide statistical model inclusive of all aspects of the adult criminal justice system (e.g., prison, parole). The project is to act as a centralized statewide data repository for this information, accessing it for use in the model, and manipulating it within the simulation framework to project systemic changes brought about by revisions to current policies.

Project Goals & Objectives

As mentioned, a sentencing simulation model enables one to assess the impact of sentencing reforms on prison populations as well as correctional populations supervised in the community, most notably parole and probation. A model that is well-developed and properly maintained in terms of data compilation and interpretation has the capacity to project corrections populations upwards of five years into the future with relative accuracy. Simulation models are becoming a standard tool across the nation for lawmakers and criminal justice practitioners in efforts to deal with burgeoning corrections populations in spite of financially strapped legal systems and justice agencies. The State of Hawaii is also no stranger to this correctional resources quandary. Allocation decisions are best made with an intricate understanding of the “ebbs and flows” of the corrections system, a myriad of agencies that impact each other based on individualized policy and practice. Changes to one area of the system will invariably affect all parts of the system, and often this “ripple” effect is unforeseeable in the near-term. Sentencing simulation works to extrapolate and manage the intended and unintended consequences of policy changes in a statistical manner. With proper agency data input, the simulation model will be able to examine current policies while also being able to make projections based on proposed changes to existing policies.

The potential impact on correctional resources is an important consideration when significant changes in sentencing laws are proposed. Lawmakers duly request sponsors of sentencing legislation to provide a statement of impact, only to be advised that the technical ability is unavailable in the State (or that it would involve a preliminary study, often requiring unavailable resources and/or time). The accurate profile of existing convicted defendants and the development of tools to predict future criminal offender populations are essential to the efficient management of limited correctional resources. Currently statewide, criminal offender information is fragmented, compiled within two branches of government and three public agencies that supervise the criminal population. In addition, law enforcement agencies at the local- and state-level have additional information that is necessary to understand the flow of cases through the criminal justice system.

The SSMP seeks to gather all data necessary for use in the model. This entails compiling, substantiating, interpreting, and manipulating information submitted by all participating agencies, including: Department of Public Safety, Hawaii Paroling Authority, Adult Probation Division of the State Judiciary, and the Department of the Attorney General’s Hawaii Criminal Justice Data Center. Also inclusive of the model are data pertaining to state population (Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism) and arrest statistics (Department of the Attorney General, Crime Prevention & Justice Assistance Division). This data is to be warehoused on a computer server dedicated to the SSMP. As the infrastructure of the system develops, agency data will be periodically uploaded to the SSMP data repository, with staff reporting data integrity issues and ensuring uniform data reporting directly to appropriate agency personnel and the Corrections Population Management Commission. Monthly system monitoring reports, consisting of corrections population trends, are to be submitted to the CPMC, along with annual reports. Also, simulation of current and future proposed legislation pertaining to corrections populations will be fielded and the findings reported, at the discretion of the Commission.

The ongoing and persistent attention to statewide corrections data, in both form and substance, ensures that the SSMP is providing accurate projections. A repository of this sort is necessary in understanding all effects produced by specific policy changes, and the results are able to convey explicit population fluctuations and fiscal impacts therein.